Jagiellonia U19 2–1 Korona Kielce U19

Jagiellonia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Korona Kielce U19

5/18/2024

Central Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jagiellonia U1950%

×Draw20%

Korona Kielce U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U19Expected goals in this matchKorona Kielce U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.83

Jagiellonia U19

2.35

Korona Kielce U19

1.83

Jagiellonia U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

2.21

creates per match

1.86

1.81

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Jagiellonia U19

2.21

Korona Kielce U19

1.86

allows per match

Jagiellonia U19

1.81

Korona Kielce U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U19 ↓

Korona Kielce U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U19 or draw

69%

Jagiellonia U19 or Korona Kielce U19

80%

Draw or Korona Kielce U19

50%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

30%

Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

90%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

68%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

41%

Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals

84%

Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals

54%

Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Korona Kielce U19 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U19 attack 2.21 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.35

Korona Kielce U19 attack 1.86 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Korona Kielce U19 scores more

31%

Jagiellonia U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jagiellonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff