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Korona Kielce U19 vs Cracovia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cracovia U19
Cracovia U19
10/1/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korona Kielce U1951%
×Draw20%
Cracovia U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce U19
2.29
Cracovia U19
1.71

Korona Kielce U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce U19
2.04
Cracovia U19
1.58

allows per match

Korona Kielce U19
1.83
Cracovia U19
2.53

finishing

Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par
Cracovia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce U19 ↓

Cracovia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Korona Kielce U19 or draw
71%
Korona Kielce U19 or Cracovia U19
80%
Draw or Cracovia U19
49%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
31%
Cracovia U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
90%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
66%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
40%
Cracovia U19 1+ goals
82%
Cracovia U19 2+ goals
51%
Cracovia U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Cracovia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce U19 attack 2.04 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.29

Cracovia U19 attack 1.58 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korona Kielce U19 scores more
51%
level
20%
Cracovia U19 scores more
29%

Korona Kielce U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korona Kielce U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce U19 vs Cracovia U19

Cracovia U19 beat Korona Kielce U19 2-0 in Central Youth League on October 1, 2023.