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Cracovia U19 vs Korona Kielce U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Cracovia U19
Cracovia U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Korona Kielce U19
Korona Kielce U19
4/13/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cracovia U1944%
×Draw20%
Korona Kielce U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia U19
2.34
Korona Kielce U19
2.10

Cracovia U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cracovia U19
2.19
Korona Kielce U19
1.86

allows per match

Cracovia U19
2.35
Korona Kielce U19
2.50

finishing

Cracovia U19+0.00on par
Korona Kielce U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia U19 ↓

Korona Kielce U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Cracovia U19 or draw
64%
Cracovia U19 or Korona Kielce U19
80%
Draw or Korona Kielce U19
56%

Winning margin

Cracovia U19 wins by 2+
26%
Korona Kielce U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cracovia U19 1+ goals
90%
Cracovia U19 2+ goals
67%
Cracovia U19 3+ goals
41%
Korona Kielce U19 1+ goals
88%
Korona Kielce U19 2+ goals
62%
Korona Kielce U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Cracovia U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Korona Kielce U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

Korona Kielce U19 away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia U19 attack 2.19 + Korona Kielce U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Korona Kielce U19 attack 1.86 + Cracovia U19 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cracovia U19 scores more
44%
level
20%
Korona Kielce U19 scores more
36%

Cracovia U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cracovia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Cracovia U19 2–1 Korona Kielce U19

Cracovia U19 beat Korona Kielce U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on April 13, 2024.