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Korona Kielce II vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
2 – 2
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
5/9/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Korona Kielce II61%
×Draw19%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
2.32
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.25

Korona Kielce II creates 86% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
0.90

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.60

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
80%
Korona Kielce II or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
81%
Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów
39%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
39%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
90%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
67%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
40%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
71%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
36%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
76%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.32

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
61%
level
19%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
20%

Korona Kielce II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce II vs Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Korona Kielce II and Jutrzenka Giebułtów drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.