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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
6 – 1
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
11/4/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów32%
×Draw21%
Korona Kielce II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.69
Korona Kielce II
2.10

Korona Kielce II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 71 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
53%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Korona Kielce II
79%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
68%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
15%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
82%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
50%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
24%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
88%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
62%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
40%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
32%
level
21%
Korona Kielce II scores more
47%

Korona Kielce II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Jutrzenka Giebułtów 6–1 Korona Kielce II

Jutrzenka Giebułtów beat Korona Kielce II 6-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.