Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Korona Kielce II vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
CANC
17:00
Łagów
Łagów
3/11/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Korona Kielce II39%
×Draw24%
Łagów37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
1.53
Łagów
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 45 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
63%
Korona Kielce II or Łagów
76%
Draw or Łagów
61%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
19%
Łagów wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
78%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
20%
Łagów 1+ goals
77%
Łagów 2+ goals
43%
Łagów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
51%
Łagów (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.53

Łagów attack 1.36 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
39%
level
24%
Łagów scores more
37%

Korona Kielce II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Korona Kielce II face Łagów (III Liga - Group 4)

III Liga - Group 4 returns with Korona Kielce II hosting Łagów. Match starts March 11, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Korona Kielce II host Łagów at Stadion Korona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.