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Łagów vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Łagów
Łagów
FT
1 – 0
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
3/6/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów48%
×Draw23%
Korona Kielce II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Łagów
1.83
Korona Kielce II
1.37

Łagów creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 71 away

creates per match

Łagów
1.78
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Łagów
1.28
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Łagów or draw
71%
Łagów or Korona Kielce II
77%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
52%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+
27%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals
84%
Łagów 2+ goals
54%
Łagów 3+ goals
28%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
75%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
40%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)
63%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Łagów scores more
48%
level
23%
Korona Kielce II scores more
29%

Łagów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Łagów vs Korona Kielce II

Łagów beat Korona Kielce II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Łagówie in Łagów.