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Koro vs Black Stars — Première Division 2019

Koro
Koro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
4/19/2024Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 23Stade Mamadou Konaté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Koro39%
×Draw27%
Black Stars34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koro
1.26
Black Stars
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 67 away

creates per match

Koro
1.06
Black Stars
0.87

allows per match

Koro
1.44
Black Stars
1.46

finishing

Koro+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koro ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Koro or draw
66%
Koro or Black Stars
73%
Draw or Black Stars
61%

Winning margin

Koro wins by 2+
17%
Black Stars wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Koro 1+ goals
72%
Koro 2+ goals
36%
Koro 3+ goals
13%
Black Stars 1+ goals
69%
Black Stars 2+ goals
32%
Black Stars 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Koro (draw refunded)
53%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Black Stars away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koro attack 1.06 + Black Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Black Stars attack 0.87 + Koro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Koro scores more
39%
level
27%
Black Stars scores more
34%

Koro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Koro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Koro 2–2 Black Stars

Koro and Black Stars drew 2-2 in Première Division on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Konaté in Bamako.