Black Stars 0–1 Koro: Result & Stats

Black Stars

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Koro

Afo Serge 44'

12/9/2023

Première Division · Round 8Terrain ASB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Black Stars39%

×Draw31%

Koro30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Black StarsExpected goals in this matchKoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.89

Black Stars

1.07

Koro

0.89

Black Stars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.14

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Black Stars

1.00

Koro

0.64

allows per match

Black Stars

1.14

Koro

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par

Koro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Koro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw

70%

Black Stars or Koro

69%

Draw or Koro

61%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+

16%

Koro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals

66%

Black Stars 2+ goals

29%

Black Stars 3+ goals

9%

Koro 1+ goals

59%

Koro 2+ goals

22%

Koro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)

57%

Koro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Koro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + Koro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Koro attack 0.64 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Stars scores more

39%

level

31%

Koro scores more

30%

Black Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Afo Serge

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff