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Kórdrengir vs IR Reykjavik — 2. Deild 2018

Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
FT
3 – 1
IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
8/15/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 11Framvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kórdrengir59%
×Draw21%
IR Reykjavik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kórdrengir
2.04
IR Reykjavik
1.10

Kórdrengir creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 54 away

creates per match

Kórdrengir
2.40
IR Reykjavik
1.50

allows per match

Kórdrengir
0.70
IR Reykjavik
1.67

finishing

Kórdrengir+0.00on par
IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kórdrengir ↓

IR Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kórdrengir or draw
80%
Kórdrengir or IR Reykjavik
79%
Draw or IR Reykjavik
41%

Winning margin

Kórdrengir wins by 2+
36%
IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kórdrengir 1+ goals
87%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
60%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
33%
IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
67%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
30%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
75%
IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kórdrengir at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kórdrengir attack 2.40 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

IR Reykjavik attack 1.50 + Kórdrengir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kórdrengir scores more
59%
level
21%
IR Reykjavik scores more
20%

Kórdrengir at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kórdrengir vs IR Reykjavik

Kórdrengir beat IR Reykjavik 3-1 in 2. Deild on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Framvöllur in Reykjavík.