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IR Reykjavik vs Kórdrengir — 2. Deild 2018

IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
CANC
13:00
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
11/14/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 22Hertz völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

IR Reykjavik28%
×Draw23%
Kórdrengir49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IR Reykjavik
1.35
Kórdrengir
1.83

Kórdrengir creates 36% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 10 away

creates per match

IR Reykjavik
2.11
Kórdrengir
2.10

allows per match

IR Reykjavik
1.56
Kórdrengir
0.60

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw
51%
IR Reykjavik or Kórdrengir
77%
Draw or Kórdrengir
72%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
12%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
74%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
39%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
15%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
84%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
54%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
37%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 54 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 2.11 + Kórdrengir defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kórdrengir attack 2.10 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more
28%
level
23%
Kórdrengir scores more
49%

Kórdrengir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IR Reykjavik vs Kórdrengir — Match Preview

IR Reykjavik face Kórdrengir on November 14, 2020 in this 2. Deild fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

IR Reykjavik host Kórdrengir at Hertz völlurinn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.