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Kórdrengir vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — 1. Deild 2018

Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
8/14/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 16Leiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kórdrengir37%
×Draw24%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kórdrengir
1.54
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kórdrengir
1.82
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.03

allows per match

Kórdrengir
1.18
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.25

finishing

Kórdrengir+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kórdrengir ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kórdrengir or draw
61%
Kórdrengir or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
76%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
63%

Winning margin

Kórdrengir wins by 2+
18%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kórdrengir 1+ goals
79%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
45%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
20%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
80%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
47%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
48%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kórdrengir at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kórdrengir attack 1.82 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 2.03 + Kórdrengir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kórdrengir scores more
37%
level
24%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
39%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Kórdrengir 0–1 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

IBV Vestmannaeyjar beat Kórdrengir 1-0 in 1. Deild on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.