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IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Kórdrengir — 1. Deild 2018

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
6/4/20211. Deild1. Deild · Round 5Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar45%
×Draw24%
Kórdrengir31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.68
Kórdrengir
1.36

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 22 away

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.91
Kórdrengir
1.59

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.13
Kórdrengir
1.45

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw
69%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Kórdrengir
76%
Draw or Kórdrengir
55%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
23%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
81%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
50%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
24%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
74%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
39%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
59%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.91 + Kórdrengir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kórdrengir attack 1.59 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
45%
level
24%
Kórdrengir scores more
31%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2–2 Kórdrengir

IBV Vestmannaeyjar and Kórdrengir drew 2-2 in 1. Deild on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Hásteinsvöllur in Vestmannaeyjar.