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Korba vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
2 – 0
Djerba
Djerba
2/6/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Korba54%
×Draw29%
Djerba17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.28
Djerba
0.58

Korba creates 121% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 22 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Djerba
1.36

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Korba or draw
83%
Korba or Djerba
71%
Draw or Djerba
46%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
25%
Djerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
72%
Korba 2+ goals
37%
Korba 3+ goals
14%
Djerba 1+ goals
44%
Djerba 2+ goals
12%
Djerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
76%
Djerba (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Djerba attack 0.55 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Korba scores more
54%
level
29%
Djerba scores more
17%

Korba at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Korba 2–0 Djerba

Korba beat Djerba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.