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Djerba vs Korba — Ligue 2 2020

Djerba
Djerba
FT
1 – 0
Korba
Korba
3/14/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Jerba Houmt Souk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Djerba44%
×Draw30%
Korba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerba
1.19
Korba
0.85

Djerba creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

creates per match

Djerba
1.09
Korba
0.75

allows per match

Djerba
0.95
Korba
1.28

finishing

Djerba+0.00on par
Korba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerba ↓

Korba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Djerba or draw
74%
Djerba or Korba
70%
Draw or Korba
56%

Winning margin

Djerba wins by 2+
19%
Korba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Djerba 1+ goals
70%
Djerba 2+ goals
33%
Djerba 3+ goals
12%
Korba 1+ goals
57%
Korba 2+ goals
21%
Korba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Djerba (draw refunded)
63%
Korba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerba at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Korba away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerba attack 1.09 + Korba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Korba attack 0.75 + Djerba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Djerba scores more
44%
level
30%
Korba scores more
26%

Djerba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerba vs Korba

Djerba beat Korba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jerba Houmt Souk in Houmt Souk.