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Korabi Peshkopi vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
10/2/20211st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi52%
×Draw27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korabi Peshkopi
1.43
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.81

Korabi Peshkopi creates 77% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 51 away

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi
1.39
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi
0.76
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw
79%
Korabi Peshkopi or Besëlidhja Lezhë
73%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
48%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
76%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
42%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
17%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
56%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
19%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
71%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more
52%
level
27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
21%

Korabi Peshkopi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korabi Peshkopi vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Korabi Peshkopi beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-1 in 1st Division on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Korabi in Peshkopi.