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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
1/28/20231st Division1st Division · Round 13Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë45%
×Draw26%
Korabi Peshkopi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.45
Korabi Peshkopi
1.11

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 31% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
71%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Korabi Peshkopi
74%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
55%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
22%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
77%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
42%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
18%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
67%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
30%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
61%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
45%
level
26%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
29%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Korabi Peshkopi

Korabi Peshkopi beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 1-0 in 1st Division on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.