Korabi Peshkopi 2–3 AF Elbasani: Result & Stats

Korabi Peshkopi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

AF Elbasani

4/6/2024

1st Division · Round 28Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi35%

×Draw27%

AF Elbasani39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korabi PeshkopiExpected goals in this matchAF Elbasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Korabi Peshkopi

1.23

AF Elbasani

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

1.88

0.76

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi

1.39

AF Elbasani

1.88

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi

0.76

AF Elbasani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

AF Elbasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw

61%

Korabi Peshkopi or AF Elbasani

73%

Draw or AF Elbasani

65%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

15%

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

71%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

35%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

13%

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

73%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

38%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

47%

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

35%

level

27%

AF Elbasani scores more

39%

AF Elbasani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff