Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AF Elbasani vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
1/19/20241st Division1st Division · Round 17Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani63%
×Draw21%
Korabi Peshkopi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
2.00
Korabi Peshkopi
0.91

AF Elbasani creates 120% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 103 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
84%
AF Elbasani or Korabi Peshkopi
79%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
37%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
38%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
86%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
59%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
32%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
60%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
23%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
79%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.00

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
63%
level
21%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
16%

AF Elbasani at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AF Elbasani vs Korabi Peshkopi

AF Elbasani beat Korabi Peshkopi 2-1 in 1st Division on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.