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Korab Debar vs KF Gostivari — Second League 2019

Korab Debar
Korab Debar
FT
2 – 1
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
11/23/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Korab Debar38%
×Draw27%
KF Gostivari35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korab Debar
1.28
KF Gostivari
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Korab Debar
1.62
KF Gostivari
1.64

allows per match

Korab Debar
0.76
KF Gostivari
0.94

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw
65%
Korab Debar or KF Gostivari
73%
Draw or KF Gostivari
62%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+
17%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals
72%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
37%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
14%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
70%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
34%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)
53%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.62 + KF Gostivari defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

KF Gostivari attack 1.64 + Korab Debar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Korab Debar scores more
38%
level
27%
KF Gostivari scores more
35%

Korab Debar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korab Debar vs KF Gostivari

Korab Debar beat KF Gostivari 2-1 in Second League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Debar.