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KF Gostivari vs Korab Debar — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
2 – 0
Korab Debar
Korab Debar
9/15/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 4Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

KF Gostivari59%
×Draw24%
Korab Debar17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.72
Korab Debar
0.79

KF Gostivari creates 118% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.81
Korab Debar
0.86

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.73
Korab Debar
1.62

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Korab Debar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Korab Debar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
83%
KF Gostivari or Korab Debar
76%
Draw or Korab Debar
41%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
34%
Korab Debar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
82%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
51%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
25%
Korab Debar 1+ goals
55%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
19%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
78%
Korab Debar (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Korab Debar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.81 + Korab Debar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Korab Debar attack 0.86 + KF Gostivari defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
59%
level
24%
Korab Debar scores more
17%

KF Gostivari at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF Gostivari vs Korab Debar

KF Gostivari beat Korab Debar 2-0 in Second League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.