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Kooteepee vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga 2026

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
7/18/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kooteepee27%
×Draw25%
Inter Turku48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
1.12
Inter Turku
1.60

Inter Turku creates 43% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 118 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
0.90
Inter Turku
1.38

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.83
Inter Turku
1.34

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
52%
Kooteepee or Inter Turku
75%
Draw or Inter Turku
73%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
10%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
67%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
31%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
10%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
80%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
47%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
36%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 41 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 0.90 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + Kooteepee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kooteepee scores more
27%
level
25%
Inter Turku scores more
48%

Inter Turku at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kooteepee vs Inter Turku

Kooteepee and Inter Turku drew 2-2 in Veikkausliiga on July 18, 2025.

The match was played at Arto Tolsa Areena in Kotka.