Kooteepee 1–4 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

Kooteepee

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Inter Turku

W. Pozo 12'

P. Forsell 74' (pen), 31'

T. Stavitski 40' (pen)

B. Ampofo 24'

8/7/2023

Veikkausliiga · Round 18Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kooteepee27%

×Draw25%

Inter Turku48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KooteepeeExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.60

Kooteepee

1.12

Inter Turku

1.60

Inter Turku creates 43% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 118 away

0.90

creates per match

1.38

1.83

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Kooteepee

0.90

Inter Turku

1.38

allows per match

Kooteepee

1.83

Inter Turku

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw

52%

Kooteepee or Inter Turku

75%

Draw or Inter Turku

73%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+

10%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals

67%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

31%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

10%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

80%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

47%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

36%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.83 · 41 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 0.90 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + Kooteepee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kooteepee scores more

27%

level

25%

Inter Turku scores more

48%

Inter Turku at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

12'

14'

20'

24'

B. Ampofo↳ I. Järvinen

30'

Miska Ylitolva

31'

P. Forsell↳ T. Jyry

39'

Gabriel Sandberg

40'

T. StavitskiPenalty

46'

46'

50'

50'

56'

D. Ramadingaye← V. Vesiaho

65'

S. Roiha← Mika

65'

A. Tarvonen← W. Pozo

65'

D. Smith← M. Tamminen

74'

P. ForsellPenalty

80'

R. Arciero← V. Purosalo

80'

A. Sejdiu← J. Niska

89'

David Agbo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KooteepeeInter

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots19

2Corners5

18Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots19

4On Target9

3Off Target7

1Blocked3

Passing

50%Possession50%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2