Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — League #203 2026

Konyaspor
Konyaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
6/3/2023League #203League #203 · Round 37Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Konyaspor50%
×Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konyaspor
1.61
Fatih Karagümrük
1.05

Konyaspor creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Konyaspor
1.16
Fatih Karagümrük
0.47

allows per match

Konyaspor
1.64
Fatih Karagümrük
2.07

finishing

Konyaspor-0.46scores less
Fatih Karagümrük+0.20scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw
75%
Konyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük
75%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
50%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+
26%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals
80%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
48%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
22%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
65%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
28%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)
67%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 1.16 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.47 + Konyaspor defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Konyaspor scores more
50%
level
25%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
25%

Konyaspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük drew 1-1 in League #203 on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Konya.