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Fatih Karagümrük vs Konyaspor — League #203 2026

Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Konyaspor
Konyaspor
3/15/2024League #203League #203 · Round 30Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Fatih Karagümrük47%
×Draw25%
Konyaspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fatih Karagümrük
1.58
Konyaspor
1.15

Fatih Karagümrük creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.31
Konyaspor
1.07

allows per match

Fatih Karagümrük
1.22
Konyaspor
1.85

finishing

Fatih Karagümrük+0.36scores more
Konyaspor+0.01on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fatih Karagümrük ↓

Konyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fatih Karagümrük or draw
72%
Fatih Karagümrük or Konyaspor
75%
Draw or Konyaspor
53%

Winning margin

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
24%
Konyaspor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
79%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
47%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
21%
Konyaspor 1+ goals
68%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
32%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
63%
Konyaspor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fatih Karagümrük at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.31 + Konyaspor defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Konyaspor attack 1.07 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fatih Karagümrük scores more
47%
level
25%
Konyaspor scores more
28%

Fatih Karagümrük at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #203: Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Konyaspor

Fatih Karagümrük and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in İstanbul.