Konkola Blades 1–0 Kansanshi Dynamos

Konkola Blades

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kansanshi Dynamos

3/2/2024

Super League · Round 23Konkola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Konkola Blades40%

×Draw33%

Kansanshi Dynamos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Konkola BladesExpected goals in this matchKansanshi Dynamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.74

Konkola Blades

0.99

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.74

Konkola Blades creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

0.88

creates per match

0.68

0.80

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Konkola Blades

0.88

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.68

allows per match

Konkola Blades

0.80

Kansanshi Dynamos

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konkola Blades ↓

Kansanshi Dynamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Konkola Blades or draw

74%

Konkola Blades or Kansanshi Dynamos

67%

Draw or Kansanshi Dynamos

60%

Winning margin

Konkola Blades wins by 2+

15%

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Konkola Blades 1+ goals

63%

Konkola Blades 2+ goals

26%

Konkola Blades 3+ goals

8%

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals

52%

Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals

17%

Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)

60%

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konkola Blades at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Kansanshi Dynamos away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konkola Blades attack 0.88 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.68 + Konkola Blades defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Konkola Blades scores more

40%

level

33%

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more

26%

Konkola Blades at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Konkola Blades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff