Kansanshi Dynamos 1–1 Konkola Blades

Kansanshi Dynamos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Konkola Blades

8/30/2025

Super League · Round 3Solwezi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kansanshi Dynamos43%

×Draw33%

Konkola Blades23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kansanshi DynamosExpected goals in this matchKonkola Blades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.67

Kansanshi Dynamos

1.03

Konkola Blades

0.67

Kansanshi Dynamos creates 54% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

0.94

creates per match

0.68

0.66

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.94

Konkola Blades

0.68

allows per match

Kansanshi Dynamos

0.66

Konkola Blades

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kansanshi Dynamos+0.00on par

Konkola Blades+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kansanshi Dynamos ↓

Konkola Blades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Kansanshi Dynamos or draw

77%

Kansanshi Dynamos or Konkola Blades

67%

Draw or Konkola Blades

57%

Winning margin

Kansanshi Dynamos wins by 2+

17%

Konkola Blades wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kansanshi Dynamos 1+ goals

64%

Kansanshi Dynamos 2+ goals

28%

Kansanshi Dynamos 3+ goals

9%

Konkola Blades 1+ goals

49%

Konkola Blades 2+ goals

15%

Konkola Blades 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kansanshi Dynamos (draw refunded)

65%

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kansanshi Dynamos at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.66 · 68 matches

Konkola Blades away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kansanshi Dynamos attack 0.94 + Konkola Blades defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Konkola Blades attack 0.68 + Kansanshi Dynamos defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kansanshi Dynamos scores more

43%

level

33%

Konkola Blades scores more

23%

Kansanshi Dynamos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kansanshi Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff