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Köniz vs Emmenbrücke — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Emmenbrücke
Emmenbrücke
5/18/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Köniz49%
×Draw24%
Emmenbrücke28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.73
Emmenbrücke
1.25

Köniz creates 38% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Emmenbrücke
1.30

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Emmenbrücke
2.17

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Emmenbrücke+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Emmenbrücke →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
72%
Köniz or Emmenbrücke
76%
Draw or Emmenbrücke
51%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
26%
Emmenbrücke wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
82%
Köniz 2+ goals
52%
Köniz 3+ goals
25%
Emmenbrücke 1+ goals
71%
Emmenbrücke 2+ goals
36%
Emmenbrücke 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
64%
Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Emmenbrücke away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Emmenbrücke attack 1.30 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Köniz scores more
49%
level
24%
Emmenbrücke scores more
28%

Köniz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Köniz 4–1 Emmenbrücke

Köniz beat Emmenbrücke 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.