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Emmenbrücke vs Köniz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Emmenbrücke
Emmenbrücke
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Köniz
Köniz
4/29/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Gersag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Emmenbrücke33%
×Draw22%
Köniz45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmenbrücke
1.60
Köniz
1.88

Köniz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

Emmenbrücke
1.53
Köniz
1.35

allows per match

Emmenbrücke
2.40
Köniz
1.67

finishing

Emmenbrücke+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmenbrücke ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Emmenbrücke or draw
55%
Emmenbrücke or Köniz
78%
Draw or Köniz
67%

Winning margin

Emmenbrücke wins by 2+
16%
Köniz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Emmenbrücke 1+ goals
80%
Emmenbrücke 2+ goals
47%
Emmenbrücke 3+ goals
22%
Köniz 1+ goals
85%
Köniz 2+ goals
56%
Köniz 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Emmenbrücke (draw refunded)
43%
Köniz (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmenbrücke at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmenbrücke attack 1.53 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Köniz attack 1.35 + Emmenbrücke defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Emmenbrücke scores more
33%
level
22%
Köniz scores more
45%

Köniz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Emmenbrücke vs Köniz

Emmenbrücke and Köniz drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gersag in Emmenbrücke.