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Koninklijke HFC vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
9/13/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 5Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Koninklijke HFC49%
×Draw24%
GVVV Veenendaal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.68
GVVV Veenendaal
1.19

Koninklijke HFC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 86 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
GVVV Veenendaal
1.36

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
GVVV Veenendaal
1.85

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
73%
Koninklijke HFC or GVVV Veenendaal
76%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
51%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
26%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
81%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
50%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
24%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
70%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
33%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
64%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.68

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
49%
level
24%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
27%

Koninklijke HFC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Koninklijke HFC 2–0 GVVV Veenendaal

Koninklijke HFC beat GVVV Veenendaal 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Spakenburg.