GVVV Veenendaal 2–1 Koninklijke HFC: Result & Stats

GVVV Veenendaal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Koninklijke HFC

2/7/2026

Tweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark Panhuis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

GVVV Veenendaal43%

×Draw24%

Koninklijke HFC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GVVV VeenendaalExpected goals in this matchKoninklijke HFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.45

GVVV Veenendaal

1.67

Koninklijke HFC

1.45

GVVV Veenendaal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

1.76

creates per match

1.34

1.55

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.76

Koninklijke HFC

1.34

allows per match

GVVV Veenendaal

1.55

Koninklijke HFC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GVVV Veenendaal ↓

Koninklijke HFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

GVVV Veenendaal or draw

67%

GVVV Veenendaal or Koninklijke HFC

76%

Draw or Koninklijke HFC

57%

Winning margin

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

22%

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

81%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

50%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

23%

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

77%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

42%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

56%

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GVVV Veenendaal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.76 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

43%

level

24%

Koninklijke HFC scores more

33%

GVVV Veenendaal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff