Koninklijke HFC 1–4 FC Lisse: Result & Stats

Koninklijke HFC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

FC Lisse

12/9/2023

Tweede Divisie · Round 16Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Koninklijke HFC56%

×Draw23%

FC Lisse21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koninklijke HFCExpected goals in this matchFC Lisse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.04

Koninklijke HFC

1.84

FC Lisse

1.04

Koninklijke HFC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 35 away

1.51

creates per match

1.06

1.02

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.51

FC Lisse

1.06

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.02

FC Lisse

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

FC Lisse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw

79%

Koninklijke HFC or FC Lisse

77%

Draw or FC Lisse

44%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

32%

FC Lisse wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

84%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

55%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

28%

FC Lisse 1+ goals

65%

FC Lisse 2+ goals

28%

FC Lisse 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

73%

FC Lisse (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more

56%

level

23%

FC Lisse scores more

21%

Koninklijke HFC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff