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FC Lisse vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

FC Lisse
FC Lisse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
12/3/2022Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse34%
×Draw24%
Koninklijke HFC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Lisse
1.40
Koninklijke HFC
1.56

Koninklijke HFC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 99 away

creates per match

FC Lisse
1.23
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

FC Lisse
1.77
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw
59%
FC Lisse or Koninklijke HFC
76%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
66%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+
16%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals
75%
FC Lisse 2+ goals
41%
FC Lisse 3+ goals
17%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
79%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
46%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)
45%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Lisse scores more
34%
level
24%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
41%

Koninklijke HFC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: FC Lisse 2–1 Koninklijke HFC

FC Lisse beat Koninklijke HFC 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.