Kongsvinger 1–5 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Kongsvinger

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Aalesund

O. Kapskarmo 80'

P. Ngongo 63' (pen), 34'

M. Rafferty 45+3', 20'

S. Kilen 43'

9/21/2024

1. Division · Round 23Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kongsvinger45%

×Draw23%

Aalesund32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongsvingerExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.44

Kongsvinger

1.76

Aalesund

1.44

Kongsvinger creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 31 away

2.04

creates per match

1.45

1.43

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Kongsvinger

2.04

Aalesund

1.45

allows per match

Kongsvinger

1.43

Aalesund

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw

68%

Kongsvinger or Aalesund

77%

Draw or Aalesund

55%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+

24%

Aalesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals

83%

Kongsvinger 2+ goals

52%

Kongsvinger 3+ goals

26%

Aalesund 1+ goals

76%

Aalesund 2+ goals

42%

Aalesund 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)

59%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 2.04 + Aalesund defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.76

Aalesund attack 1.45 + Kongsvinger defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kongsvinger scores more

45%

level

23%

Aalesund scores more

32%

Kongsvinger at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kongsvinger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

34'

43'

45+2'

45+3'

46'

A. Güven← N. Williams

46'

M. Gjerstrøm← A. Dybevik

46'

A. Klemensson← A. Strömberg

60'

J. Grundt← E. Taylor

62'

E. Nielsen

63'

P. NgongoPenalty

69'

D. Jóhannsson← M. Rafferty

75'

E. Kolve← J. Seehusen

80'

A. Sandstad← L. Gerson

80'

O. Kapskarmo

81'

H. Melland← H. Hammer

81'

N. Solskjær← S. Kilen

81'

M. Ramsland← P. Ngongo

Kongsvinger

Aalesund

26

5

2

3

44

7

6

▼

Hammer

66

▼

Seehusen

22

⚽2

▼

Rafferty

15

⚽

▼

Kilen

19

⚽2

▼

Ngongo

1

▼

Strömberg

10

▼

2

19

12

27

▼

Dybevik

6

Holter

7

▼

Taylor

22

Langrekke

11

▼

Williams

32

⚽

Kapskarmo

Manager: J. Wennberg

46'▲A. Güven←▼N. Williams

46'▲M. Gjerstrøm←▼A. Dybevik

46'▲A. Klemensson←▼A. Strömberg

60'▲J. Grundt←▼E. Taylor

80'▲A. Sandstad←▼L. Gerson

Kongsvinger substitutes

9Güven17Gjerstrøm41Klemensson20Grundt48Sandstad25Damhaug46Damhaug

Manager: K. Rekdal

69'▲D. Jóhannsson←▼M. Rafferty

75'▲E. Kolve←▼J. Seehusen

81'▲H. Melland←▼H. Hammer

81'▲N. Solskjær←▼S. Kilen

81'▲M. Ramsland←▼P. Ngongo

Aalesund substitutes

11Jóhannsson28Kolve8Melland17Solskjær18Ramsland10Braga25Kitolano13Gülstorff33Holte

Match Recap: Kongsvinger vs Aalesund

Aalesund beat Kongsvinger 5-1 in 1. Division on September 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Rafferty (20', 45+3'), P. Ngongo (34', 63' pen), S. Kilen (43'), O. Kapskarmo (80').

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.

Kongsvinger vs Aalesund — 1. Division 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kongsvinger vs Aalesund