Aalesund 4–4 Kongsvinger: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

4 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Kongsvinger

K. Nessø 82'

S. Kilen 44'

H. Hammer 27'

Cláudio Braga 21'

L. Haren 87', 41'

J. Nilsson 73'

E. Nielsen 65'

6/9/2024

1. Division · Round 12Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aalesund43%

×Draw24%

Kongsvinger33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchKongsvinger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.45

Aalesund

1.67

Kongsvinger

1.45

Aalesund creates 15% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 72 away

1.94

creates per match

1.54

1.35

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Aalesund

1.94

Kongsvinger

1.54

allows per match

Aalesund

1.35

Kongsvinger

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par

Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Kongsvinger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

67%

Aalesund or Kongsvinger

76%

Draw or Kongsvinger

57%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

22%

Kongsvinger wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

81%

Aalesund 2+ goals

50%

Aalesund 3+ goals

23%

Kongsvinger 1+ goals

77%

Kongsvinger 2+ goals

42%

Kongsvinger 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

56%

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Kongsvinger away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.94 + Kongsvinger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kongsvinger attack 1.54 + Aalesund defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aalesund scores more

43%

level

24%

Kongsvinger scores more

33%

Aalesund at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

9'

21'

27'

33'

39'

41'

42'

44'

46'

L. Langrekken← V. Moberg

65'

E. Nielsen

66'

M. Gjerstrøm← D. Lysgård

66'

J. Holtan← E. Nielsen

72'

N. Solskjær← S. Kilen

73'

J. Nilsson

77'

M. Karlsbakk← E. Kolve

77'

B. Kristensen← I. Atanga

82'

K. Nessø

86'

A. Sandstad← J. Grundt

87'

L. Haren

Aalesund

Kongsvinger

1

Strömberg

2

⚽

Nilsson

21

▼

Lysgård

3

Þorkelsso

5

▼

Holmé

19

⚽

▼

Nielsen

8

▼

Moberg

6

Holter

14

⚽2

Haren

20

▼

11

1

5

25

7

⚽

Nessø

6

⚽

Hammer

11

Jóhannsso

28

▼

Kolve

15

⚽

▼

Kilen

18

Ramsland

19

▼

Atanga

10

⚽

Braga

Manager: C. Johnsen

72'▲N. Solskjær←▼S. Kilen

77'▲M. Karlsbakk←▼E. Kolve

77'▲B. Kristensen←▼I. Atanga

Aalesund substitutes

17Solskjær22Karlsbakk29Kristensen26Larsen33Holte35Berntsen36Norvik

Manager: J. Wennberg

33'▲L. Gerson←▼F. Holmé

46'▲L. Langrekken←▼V. Moberg

66'▲M. Gjerstrøm←▼D. Lysgård

66'▲J. Holtan←▼E. Nielsen

86'▲A. Sandstad←▼J. Grundt

Kongsvinger substitutes

10Gerson22Langrekken17Gjerstrøm18Holtan48Sandstad12Mbow16Trengereid31Sayouba

Match Recap: Aalesund vs Kongsvinger

Aalesund and Kongsvinger drew 4-4 in 1. Division on June 9, 2024.

Goals: Cláudio Braga (21'), H. Hammer (27'), L. Haren (41', 87'), S. Kilen (44'), E. Nielsen (65'), J. Nilsson (73'), K. Nessø (82').

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Kongsvinger — 1. Division 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Aalesund vs Kongsvinger