Kongsvinger II 5–3 Ullensaker / Kisa II

Kongsvinger II

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

9/7/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 19Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger II82%

×Draw10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kongsvinger IIExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.24

1.39

Kongsvinger II

4.24

Ullensaker / Kisa II

1.39

Kongsvinger II creates 205% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.85

creates per match

0.77

2.00

allows per match

5.62

creates per match

Kongsvinger II

2.85

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.77

allows per match

Kongsvinger II

2.00

Ullensaker / Kisa II

5.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–18%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw

92%

Kongsvinger II or Ullensaker / Kisa II

90%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

18%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+

67%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals

98%

Kongsvinger II 2+ goals

91%

Kongsvinger II 3+ goals

76%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

75%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

40%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)

91%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.77, concedes 5.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.85 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 5.62 → ÷2 → 4.24

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.77 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more

82%

level

10%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

8%

Kongsvinger II at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff