Kongsvinger II 2–0 Ullensaker / Kisa II

Kongsvinger II

FT

2 – 0

Ullensaker / Kisa II

10/23/2021

3. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 12Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kongsvinger II81%

×Draw13%

Ullensaker / Kisa II6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kongsvinger IIExpected goals in this matchUllensaker / Kisa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.58

Kongsvinger II

2.67

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.58

Kongsvinger II creates 360% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

0.33

0.83

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Kongsvinger II

2.50

Ullensaker / Kisa II

0.33

allows per match

Kongsvinger II

0.83

Ullensaker / Kisa II

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Ullensaker / Kisa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Ullensaker / Kisa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw

94%

Kongsvinger II or Ullensaker / Kisa II

87%

Draw or Ullensaker / Kisa II

19%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+

60%

Ullensaker / Kisa II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals

93%

Kongsvinger II 2+ goals

74%

Kongsvinger II 3+ goals

49%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 1+ goals

44%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 2+ goals

12%

Ullensaker / Kisa II 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)

93%

Ullensaker / Kisa II (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Ullensaker / Kisa II away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.50 + Ullensaker / Kisa II defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ullensaker / Kisa II attack 0.33 + Kongsvinger II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more

81%

level

13%

Ullensaker / Kisa II scores more

6%

Kongsvinger II at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff