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Kongsvinger II vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fløya
Fløya
Unknown 65' (OG)
A. Svendsen 42'
F. Morkved 5'
6/2/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger II35%
×Draw23%
Fløya42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
1.61
Fløya
1.77

Fløya creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
1.69
Fløya
2.00

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
1.54
Fløya
1.54

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
58%
Kongsvinger II or Fløya
77%
Draw or Fløya
65%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
17%
Fløya wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
80%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
48%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
22%
Fløya 1+ goals
83%
Fløya 2+ goals
53%
Fløya 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
46%
Fløya (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 1.69 + Fløya defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fløya attack 2.00 + Kongsvinger II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
35%
level
23%
Fløya scores more
42%

Fløya at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
F. Morkved
42'
A. Svendsen
65'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Kongsvinger II 1–2 Fløya

Fløya beat Kongsvinger II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 2, 2024.

Goals: F. Morkved (5'), A. Svendsen (42'), ? (65' o.g.).

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.