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Fløya vs Kongsvinger II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Fløya
Fløya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
S. Ekrem 63'
K. Marblow 52'
M. Damhaug 2'
7/28/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 14Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya50%
×Draw19%
Kongsvinger II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
2.49
Kongsvinger II
1.95

Fløya creates 28% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.74
Kongsvinger II
2.62

allows per match

Fløya
1.28
Kongsvinger II
2.23

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Kongsvinger II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
69%
Fløya or Kongsvinger II
81%
Draw or Kongsvinger II
50%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
31%
Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
92%
Fløya 2+ goals
71%
Fløya 3+ goals
45%
Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
86%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
58%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
62%
Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.28 · 39 matches

Kongsvinger II away — creates 2.62, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.74 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.49

Kongsvinger II attack 2.62 + Fløya defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fløya scores more
50%
level
19%
Kongsvinger II scores more
31%

Fløya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Damhaug
52'
K. Marblow
63'
S. Ekrem
90'
L. J. Fjeld
90'
L. J. Fjeld

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Fløya 2–1 Kongsvinger II

Fløya beat Kongsvinger II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on July 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Damhaug (2'), K. Marblow (52'), S. Ekrem (63').

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.