Kompozit 2–0 Khimki II: Result & Stats

Kompozit

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khimki II

9/9/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit52%

×Draw22%

Khimki II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KompozitExpected goals in this matchKhimki II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.29

Kompozit

1.94

Khimki II

1.29

Kompozit creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 74 away

2.05

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Kompozit

2.05

Khimki II

1.36

allows per match

Kompozit

1.23

Khimki II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par

Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Khimki II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw

75%

Kompozit or Khimki II

78%

Draw or Khimki II

48%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+

30%

Khimki II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals

86%

Kompozit 2+ goals

58%

Kompozit 3+ goals

30%

Khimki II 1+ goals

72%

Khimki II 2+ goals

37%

Khimki II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)

67%

Khimki II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kompozit scores more

52%

level

22%

Khimki II scores more

25%

Kompozit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff