Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khimki II vs Kompozit — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kompozit
Kompozit
5/26/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Khimki II36%
×Draw24%
Kompozit40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.44
Kompozit
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 23 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Kompozit
1.83

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Kompozit
1.43

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Kompozit+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Kompozit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
60%
Khimki II or Kompozit
76%
Draw or Kompozit
64%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
17%
Kompozit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
76%
Khimki II 2+ goals
42%
Khimki II 3+ goals
18%
Kompozit 1+ goals
79%
Kompozit 2+ goals
45%
Kompozit 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
47%
Kompozit (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Kompozit away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Kompozit defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kompozit attack 1.83 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khimki II scores more
36%
level
24%
Kompozit scores more
40%

Kompozit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs Kompozit

Kompozit beat Khimki II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.