Kompozit 0–1 Arsenal Tula II: Result & Stats

Kompozit

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal Tula II

6/20/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit52%

×Draw23%

Arsenal Tula II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KompozitExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.21

Kompozit

1.86

Arsenal Tula II

1.21

Kompozit creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 77 away

2.05

creates per match

1.19

1.23

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kompozit

2.05

Arsenal Tula II

1.19

allows per match

Kompozit

1.23

Arsenal Tula II

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Arsenal Tula II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw

75%

Kompozit or Arsenal Tula II

77%

Draw or Arsenal Tula II

48%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+

30%

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals

84%

Kompozit 2+ goals

55%

Kompozit 3+ goals

28%

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals

70%

Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals

34%

Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)

68%

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.86

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kompozit scores more

52%

level

23%

Arsenal Tula II scores more

25%

Kompozit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff