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Arsenal Tula II vs Kompozit — Second League - Group 3 2020

Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kompozit
Kompozit
10/6/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Arsenal Tula II36%
×Draw24%
Kompozit40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula II
1.47
Kompozit
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 23 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.51
Kompozit
1.83

allows per match

Arsenal Tula II
1.29
Kompozit
1.43

finishing

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par
Kompozit+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula II ↓

Kompozit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula II or draw
60%
Arsenal Tula II or Kompozit
76%
Draw or Kompozit
64%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
17%
Kompozit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
77%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
43%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
18%
Kompozit 1+ goals
79%
Kompozit 2+ goals
46%
Kompozit 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
47%
Kompozit (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

Kompozit away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.51 + Kompozit defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kompozit attack 1.83 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Tula II scores more
36%
level
24%
Kompozit scores more
40%

Kompozit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Kompozit

Arsenal Tula II beat Kompozit 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.