Kom 5–0 Rudar Velenje: Result & Stats

Kom

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rudar Velenje

9/18/2019

First League · Round 8Stadion Zlatica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kom50%

×Draw26%

Rudar Velenje25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KomExpected goals in this matchRudar Velenje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Kom

1.52

Rudar Velenje

0.99

Kom creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

1.29

creates per match

0.86

1.12

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Kom

1.29

Rudar Velenje

0.86

allows per match

Kom

1.12

Rudar Velenje

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kom+0.00on par

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Rudar Velenje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kom or draw

75%

Kom or Rudar Velenje

74%

Draw or Rudar Velenje

50%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+

25%

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals

78%

Kom 2+ goals

45%

Kom 3+ goals

20%

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

63%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

26%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)

67%

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.29 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Kom defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kom scores more

50%

level

26%

Rudar Velenje scores more

25%

Kom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff