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Kom vs Internacional Podgorica — Second League 2019

Kom
Kom
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
8/23/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 2Stadion FK Kom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kom55%
×Draw24%
Internacional Podgorica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.70
Internacional Podgorica
0.96

Kom creates 77% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kom
1.31
Internacional Podgorica
0.86

allows per match

Kom
1.06
Internacional Podgorica
2.08

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Internacional Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kom or draw
79%
Kom or Internacional Podgorica
76%
Draw or Internacional Podgorica
45%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
30%
Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
82%
Kom 2+ goals
51%
Kom 3+ goals
24%
Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
62%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
25%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
72%
Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.31 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Kom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kom scores more
55%
level
24%
Internacional Podgorica scores more
21%

Kom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kom 2–0 Internacional Podgorica

Kom beat Internacional Podgorica 2-0 in Second League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kom in Podgorica.