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Internacional Podgorica vs Kom — Second League 2019

Internacional Podgorica
Internacional Podgorica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kom
Kom
4/13/2026Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Internacional Podgorica33%
×Draw25%
Kom42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional Podgorica
1.29
Kom
1.48

Kom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 105 away

creates per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.00
Kom
1.24

allows per match

Internacional Podgorica
1.72
Kom
1.58

finishing

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par
Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional Podgorica ↓

Kom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Internacional Podgorica or draw
58%
Internacional Podgorica or Kom
75%
Draw or Kom
67%

Winning margin

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+
14%
Kom wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals
72%
Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals
37%
Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals
14%
Kom 1+ goals
77%
Kom 2+ goals
43%
Kom 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)
44%
Kom (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional Podgorica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 36 matches

Kom away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional Podgorica attack 1.00 + Kom defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kom attack 1.24 + Internacional Podgorica defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional Podgorica scores more
33%
level
25%
Kom scores more
42%

Kom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Internacional Podgorica 1–2 Kom

Kom beat Internacional Podgorica 2-1 in Second League on April 13, 2026.