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Kom vs Drezga — Second League 2019

Kom
Kom
FT
4 – 0
Drezga
Drezga
10/11/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 10Stadion Zlatica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kom53%
×Draw25%
Drezga22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.59
Drezga
0.94

Kom creates 69% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kom
1.31
Drezga
0.82

allows per match

Kom
1.06
Drezga
1.88

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Drezga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Drezga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kom or draw
78%
Kom or Drezga
75%
Draw or Drezga
47%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
28%
Drezga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
80%
Kom 2+ goals
47%
Kom 3+ goals
21%
Drezga 1+ goals
61%
Drezga 2+ goals
24%
Drezga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
70%
Drezga (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Drezga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.31 + Drezga defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Drezga attack 0.82 + Kom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kom scores more
53%
level
25%
Drezga scores more
22%

Kom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom vs Drezga

Kom beat Drezga 4-0 in Second League on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Zlatica in Podgorica.