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Drezga vs Kom — Second League 2019

Drezga
Drezga
FT
1 – 2
Kom
Kom
8/23/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Drezga33%
×Draw25%
Kom42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drezga
1.32
Kom
1.53

Kom creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 105 away

creates per match

Drezga
1.06
Kom
1.24

allows per match

Drezga
1.82
Kom
1.58

finishing

Drezga+0.00on par
Kom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drezga ↓

Kom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Drezga or draw
58%
Drezga or Kom
75%
Draw or Kom
67%

Winning margin

Drezga wins by 2+
14%
Kom wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Drezga 1+ goals
73%
Drezga 2+ goals
38%
Drezga 3+ goals
15%
Kom 1+ goals
78%
Kom 2+ goals
45%
Kom 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Drezga (draw refunded)
44%
Kom (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drezga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

Kom away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drezga attack 1.06 + Kom defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kom attack 1.24 + Drezga defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Drezga scores more
33%
level
25%
Kom scores more
42%

Kom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Drezga vs Kom

Kom beat Drezga 2-1 in Second League on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Spuž.