Kolubara 1–0 Grafičar: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Kolubara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grafičar

3/11/2024

Prva Liga · Round 24SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara45%

×Draw27%

Grafičar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolubaraExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Kolubara

1.38

Grafičar

1.02

Kolubara creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 125 away

1.39

creates per match

1.14

0.90

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kolubara

1.39

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

Kolubara

0.90

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw

72%

Kolubara or Grafičar

73%

Draw or Grafičar

55%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+

21%

Grafičar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals

75%

Kolubara 2+ goals

40%

Kolubara 3+ goals

16%

Grafičar 1+ goals

64%

Grafičar 2+ goals

27%

Grafičar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)

62%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kolubara scores more

45%

level

27%

Grafičar scores more

28%

Kolubara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff