Grafičar 1–0 Kolubara: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Grafičar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kolubara

11/22/2023

Prva Liga · Round 9Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Grafičar45%

×Draw26%

Kolubara28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrafičarExpected goals in this matchKolubara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

Grafičar

1.44

Kolubara

1.08

Grafičar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 50 away

1.75

creates per match

1.18

0.98

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Grafičar

1.75

Kolubara

1.18

allows per match

Grafičar

0.98

Kolubara

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par

Kolubara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Kolubara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw

72%

Grafičar or Kolubara

74%

Draw or Kolubara

55%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+

22%

Kolubara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals

76%

Grafičar 2+ goals

42%

Grafičar 3+ goals

18%

Kolubara 1+ goals

66%

Kolubara 2+ goals

29%

Kolubara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)

62%

Kolubara (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Kolubara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Kolubara defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kolubara attack 1.18 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grafičar scores more

45%

level

26%

Kolubara scores more

28%

Grafičar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff